Stay-at-home orders and physical distancing measures have successfully suppressed transmission of COVID-19 in many countries. As countries plan to open up and governments celebrate "small victories" over the coronavirus, they risk a resurgence of cases, a surge of preventable deaths. While some countries observe declining cases, these trends do not guarantee victory against the coronavirus. Complacency is our biggest enemy today.
Most countries are in the early stages of the outbreak. COVID-19 remains extremely dangerous, moves very fast, and can quickly reignite in subsequent waves. There are more than 3.2 million cases of the coronavirus reported in 185 countries and territories, as of April 30, 2020. More than 228,000 have died as a result of COVID-19.
Humanity is flattening the curve against COVID-19, as observed by the stabilization of novel coronavirus daily cases over time. See Figure 1. Do we see progress against COVID-19? Yes. Are we winning the war against COVID-19? No.
Figure 1: Daily cases in COVID-19 in the world (Worldometers)
In the Guidelines for Opening Up America Again, regions or states must register 14-day declining trends against the coronavirus. In other words, governments must show two weeks of progress against this coronavirus before opening up businesses again.
Learn From China
In December 2019, the coronavirus outbreak began in Wuhan, China. The Chinese saw a spike of COVID-19 cases in January 2020 and had contained the coronavirus by March 2020. See Figure 2. After attending to domestic incidents, China found importations quickly, determined their contacts, and used temporary hospitals to isolate suspected individuals. China demonstrated to the world that this virus is manageable.
Figure 2: Daily cases of COVID-19 in China (Worldometers)
Learn From USA
The coronavirus hit the United States the hardest. As of April 30, 2020, the US has 62,175 deaths due to COVID-19, the highest death count in the world. See Figure 3. In comparison, Italy has 27,682, and Spain has 26,097 deaths due to this coronavirus.
Figure 3: Total deaths due to COVID-19 in the US (Worldometers)
Response to COVID-19 in the United States is severely lacking. Despite having a world-class healthcare system, the US is not coping with the sudden spike of COVID-19 cases. America's weak and inconsistent response from government officials meant the country was slow to implement strict social distancing measures. Despite healthcare measures in place, the public was not responding to government directives with urgency. What is the impact of COVID-19 on the United States? Countless deaths and early signs of recession.
Fight Complacency
Complacency is always the most significant risk when it comes to dealing with any virus. It is always a dire situation and a very concerning virus that can wreak havoc. People drop their guard when dealing with this disease. It is still the same virus that caused a global pandemic, which originated in China. A virus will take advantage of every possibility to spread and mutate. The coronavirus disease 2019 is not going away any time soon.
In any crisis, we must remain calm. We should never be in a state of panic. We cannot assure ourselves that everything will be fine. When dealing with COVID-19, we should be rationally paranoid and guard against complacency. We cannot stop this epidemic. We can only limit the damage that the coronavirus does.
While drugs offer hope in the short-term (Remdesivir) and vaccines offer hope in the long-term, the world's population remains susceptible to coronavirus infections. There's no magic bullet to the coronavirus pandemic.
Governments must fight COVID-19 with physical distancing and other health measures. People must consciously practice social distancing. People must consciously maintain physical proximity between others while respecting people's desire to communicate and socialize.
Businesses must fight COVID-19 with resources, creativity, and innovation. Companies can develop COVID-19 solutions. Employees can work in small teams to build rapid prototypes. Companies must leverage their talent pool to solve this global pandemic.
All countries must keep a firm grip on the strategies that we know work to hold this virus - identifying, isolating, tracing contacts and current timing, and continuously monitoring the effectiveness of measures in place.
Anticipate Future Coronaviruses
COVID-19 has infected millions. Through mutations, a deadlier strain of the coronavirus may emerge, a fatal second wave will be devastating.
We must learn how to run our economy and organizations amidst the spread of coronaviruses. COVID-19 is not the first coronavirus, and it's not the last. Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) [2002-2003] and middle east respiratory syndrome (MERS) [2015-present] came before it. COVID-19 may not disappear, as SARS did. We may see the resurgence of this coronavirus over time. This coronavirus may be with us for a long time.
Open Up In Phases
While some regions or areas celebrate declining trends, complacency is the most significant risk that countries and businesses face today. The price of contentment is an overwhelmed healthcare system, mounting death toll, and subsequent waves. Always err on the side of caution. Always make decisions based on precaution.
Opening up businesses must happen gradually and take into account government guidelines. We cannot deceive ourselves into believing we are secure and safe. Any return to the "new normal" must account for risk.
Closing Remarks
I invite you and your organizations to reconsider your purpose and future operating in the world of coronaviruses. Coronaviruses will continue to evolve. We can expect new strains of the coronavirus disease to emerge in humans, mammals, and birds.
COVID-19 presents once in a lifetime opportunity for businesses to redefine themselves. How can you and your team operate more efficiently in the new world of coronaviruses? It's time to get creative.
I encourage you to reassess your mission and purpose, while at the same time sharpening your commitments to fight coronaviruses using organizational resources. Start by accessing where your company stands today. What is your company's response plan to the coronavirus outbreak? Is this response public?
There are two ways humanity can approach the coronavirus: denial or acceptance. We can downplay the danger of COVID-19 as we have previously dismissed other threats such as climate breakdown. Alternatively, we can accept that humanity is dependent on a habitable planet, governed by biology and physics. The latest coronavirus outbreak reminds us that we belong to the natural world.
It's our responsibility to deal with the coronavirus by staying cautious. It's our responsibility to reduce transmissions of the coronavirus. The coronavirus will stop if we intervene. The coronavirus will stop by the collective actions that individuals, organizations, and government agencies take.
Keep calm, not complacent. You and your team have company resources to fight COVID-19. Use them!