Fear of isolation will push people outside, into social settings, into groups. Declining cash flow will create impatience and anxiety. Mounting pressures of individuals and businesses will force governments to lift stay-at-home orders and ease social distancing measures. Optimism and complacency will lead to the resurgence of COVID-19, the second wave of the coronavirus.
Countries must keep a firm grip on the strategies that work to hold the coronavirus - identifying, isolating, and tracing contacts while monitoring the effectiveness of measures in place. Businesses must learn from past pandemics, prepare for the second spike of COVID-19, and remain cautiously realistic.
Learn From The Past
Humanity has seen many severities of pandemics. Pandemics tend to circle the globe in at least two, sometimes three, waves. Viruses tend to mutate frequently and unpredictably during subsequent waves. The 1968 pandemic saw two waves of infections. The 1957 epidemic started "mild" and returned "somewhat severe" in the second wave. The 1918 flu began "mild" and came back "very severe" in three waves.
The 1918 flu, known as the Spanish flu, is the deadliest pandemic in modern history. The flu lasted for two years, from January 1918 to December 1920. The Spanish flu came in three waves. The vast majority of deaths happened in the second wave (see figure below). During the second wave, the virus mutated and spread by wartime troop movements.
Figure: Three waves of Spanish flu (CDC, 2018)
The Spanish flu killed 50 million and infected 500 million people, about 1/3 of the world's population at the time. The significant decline of prime working-age employees impacted businesses in several ways:
Service and entertainment industries suffered double-digit losses in revenue
Merchants saw declining activity up to 70%
Retail grocery businesses were reduced by 1/3
Department stores lost up to 50% of sales
Coal mine production dropped by 50%
The Spanish flu taught humanity three important lessons:
key to flattening the curve was social distancing
relaxing intervention measures too early could cause an otherwise stabilized city to relapse
cities with stricter social distancing measures reaped economic benefits
Prepare For The Second Wave
In every pandemic, there's a tug of war. On one end, there are economic and business interests; on the other end is the public's health. As governments ease social distancing restrictions and lift strict measures, they are letting go of the rope and observing what the disease does next.
The best-case scenario is where the government monitors what's happening with the coronavirus, reacts quickly, and promptly turns on interventions as needed. The worst-case scenario is where the government gives in to societal pressure by re-opening cities, lifting stay-at-home orders, and creating an opportunity for the second wave of COVID-19 to spread.
The White House and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recently unrevealed a three-phased approach for opening up America again. Similarly, businesses must develop and implement risk management plans for resuming business operations. Phased business strategies for returning to a "new normal" will allow companies to respond intelligently amidst uncertainty and fear.
Remain Cautiously Realistic
With the coronavirus, businesses are in turbulent waters and will remain there for some time. When countries see progress against COVID-19, companies should be cautiously realistic. Individuals and businesses must recognize that viruses can mutate and circulate the world over and over again.
Optimism for progress, complacency for safety and security, and resumption of economic activity will create the possibility of subsequent waves of infection. Countries that relax public health measures too quickly will risk secondary peaks and huge loss of life. Businesses that prepare for the worst-case scenario will hold strong amidst the rising and falling expectations.
The question is not whether there will be a second peak of COVID-19; the question is:
Are businesses prepared for the second wave?